A dozen watch experts read the tea leaves and agreed on one thing: Even as the market cools, the luxury watch business is more resilient than ever.
“What is your boldest prediction for the watch industry in 2023?”
We asked this question to 12 movers in the watch industry and got a lot of insightful, provocative and surprising answers in return.
The general consensus is that after three years with superchargers, the market is starting to cool. The opportunity for pre-owned watches is greater than ever, especially in light of Rolex's recent certified pre-owned announcement. This sustainability will continue to dominate the corporate watchmaking agenda. And these highly coveted timepieces, especially those from small-batch independent watchmakers, are poised to grow even bigger.
Read the full prophecies below to find out what else is being prepared for the new year.
“We will continue to see more brands move forward without gender-categorizing watches. We've seen some movement in that direction as a result of the wider debate on gender in the watch community, and I think the industry is starting to listen.”
"We're in for a serious correction, which I don't think is a bad thing. It's good for everyone to see us come down from $200,000 Nautiluses to reasonable prices. As we go through this correction, we'll see three things come out of it:
If we consider the pre-Covid watch community, we've seen it grow significantly through Covid. I think we will see a pullback from people in space, but the total number of people in space will be greater than before Covid.
We're starting to see signs of dress watches, smaller watches, metiers d'art watches that we haven't seen in the age of the steel sports watch-obsessed community. We even see micro brands gravitating towards the dress watch space. Outside of the sports watch trend, I think we will see more exploration of the traditional side of watchmaking.
The third thing we will see is the evolution of the secondary market. The appreciation and discussion of watches as an asset class over the past two years has created a very different secondary market than collectors who have spent 20 years in this category are accustomed to. The secondary market has always been the driving force for opportunities and discoveries; a way to upgrade to watches at more reasonable prices. When we see the used market return to this state, we will see a lot more liquidity in the market because more people will be able to trade and more people will be buying watches.”
“It all depends on what the Fed does. They've raised interest rates quite aggressively so far, and if they keep raising interest rates to slow the economy, you'll see art, hours, and real estate gradually decline.
Rolex still can't make watches fast enough; they have five, 10, 20 buyers for each model they make. Most people still can't get a brand new one as they are out of stock. I don't see this on the right side anytime soon. It will continue to be premium on Rolex next year because you can't just buy them new. Prices may drop a bit until we see more inventory in stores.”
“Forecasts are based on recent history and the last three years have been very surprising. Nothing happened in the last three years that we could have planned. However, business has really been very resilient to the turmoil we are experiencing between the sanitary crisis, and now the energy crisis and inflation.
My short answer: The world as we've seen it lately is hard to predict. But we are in a very resilient industry. Despite these challenges, Jaeger-LeCoultre is overperforming and growing. The USA has been a priority for us to increase our visibility in this crucial market. We are really very confident in ourselves.”
David Hurley, Executive Vice President of Watches of Switzerland Group, North America
“2023 will see a major focus on sustainability in the watch industry. Younger consumers are demanding it, and sales are there to support it. Following in the footsteps of Breitling and Panerai, we expect to see more watches made from sustainable materials and less extravagant packaging.”
“We will see the market cool down significantly in 2023. Still, I hope we can record growth. I expect 2023 to be in the range of +2% to +4%. And if I'm wrong, I'm very happy for the watch industry.
I expect continued growth in key players. But things are getting cold. The crazy things we've seen in the last two years are no longer part of the business. It's like when you open the doors on January 1, 2022 and know that all your annual production is gone. That's basically what Audemars Piguet, Rolex and Patek Philippe accomplished. It's a very polarized market. Most other brands are somewhat average.
“I think everybody will tell you that 2023 is going to be about the used market, the certified pre-owned (CPO) and I agree. Rolex is telling us what 2023 will be like for retailers. We'll see more, but CPO will be a big word for everyone, especially in big brands: Cartier, Omega, Patek, big brands.
People look at watches as an investment; Because you have the pricing, you know exactly what a Rolex will be worth in three years. But at Cartier you have no idea. What watch will you get? It's all about information, it's all about transparency - that's the beauty of everything."
“The watch market will continue its downward price correction, especially for status brands, but much less so for independent brands. For smaller independent brands such as Greubel Forsey, De Bethune, Romain Gauthier, Grönefeld, Ludovic Ballouard, demand will exceed supply, so prices will remain strong. Speculators will be withdrawn from the market. Buyers will buy for pleasure with no expectation of profit/resale value, and collectors will be re-energized, their passions ignited and fun again!”
I envision and hope for a new era of creative collaboration between the fields of contemporary art and watchmaking, where emerging and experimental artists come together with watchmakers to advance creative conversation and bridge the gap between the two undoubtedly intertwined worlds. core.
“A few things come to mind for 2023. There is the 30th anniversary of the Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Offshore and the 60th anniversary of the Rolex Daytona.
There was a lot of excitement with hype watches in 2021-22. I think that in 2023, a “less is more” approach will emerge from brands. I think they don't want to continue the enthusiasm we see. There may be fewer product launches, but more effective models are released.
I guess brands will probably read the environment and let's not throw big fireworks in '23. Let's be a little humble. Let's get the killer parts out before too many additional models are released at the same time.”
“The interest in wristwatches will continue to remain strong as many young people discover watch collecting. The newly announced Rolex Certified Pre-Own program will finally remove the uncertainty around buying a used Rolex by offering a 2-year warranty and reliable authentication.”
“Last year was the most exciting and unprecedented for the watch world. We also saw a return to some levels of normalcy in terms of pricing towards the second half of the year as we saw countless new collectors enter our growing community and demand for rare watches reached a fever pitch. It was a cheerful blur of a rollercoaster.
I believe that 2023 will be the year of refinement and record-breaking results for the most admired watch samples. My boldest prediction is that independent brands will continue to break world records for sales, and the best watches from the multi-story maisons will reach new heights in value and collectibles. As the saying goes, a rising wave lifts all ships; Well, a steady tide also allows for a closer look at what's most special.
Yorum yazarak Litsuit Topluluk Kuralları’nı kabul etmiş bulunuyor ve yorumunuzla ilgili doğrudan veya dolaylı tüm sorumluluğu tek başınıza üstleniyorsunuz. Yazılan yorumlardan Litsuit hiçbir şekilde sorumlu tutulamaz.
Haber ajansları tarafından servis edilen tüm haberler Litsuit editörlerinin hiçbir editöryel müdahalesi olmadan, ajans kanallarından geldiği şekliyle yayınlanmaktadır. Sitemize ajanslar üzerinden aktarılan haberlerin hukuki muhatabı Litsuit değil haberi geçen ajanstır.
Şimdi oturum açın, her yorumda isim ve e.posta yazma zahmetinden kurtulun. Oturum açmak için bir hesabınız yoksa, oluşturmak için buraya tıklayın.
Yorum yazarak Litsuit Topluluk Kuralları’nı kabul etmiş bulunuyor ve yorumunuzla ilgili doğrudan veya dolaylı tüm sorumluluğu tek başınıza üstleniyorsunuz. Yazılan yorumlardan Litsuit hiçbir şekilde sorumlu tutulamaz.
Haber ajansları tarafından servis edilen tüm haberler Litsuit editörlerinin hiçbir editöryel müdahalesi olmadan, ajans kanallarından geldiği şekliyle yayınlanmaktadır. Sitemize ajanslar üzerinden aktarılan haberlerin hukuki muhatabı Litsuit değil haberi geçen ajanstır.